Oberseminar Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie
Joint research seminar of LMU and TUM in Probability Theory
Students and guests welcome.
Organizers:
Noam
Berger (TUM),
Nina
Gantert
(TUM),
Konstantinos Panagiotou (LMU),
Markus
Heydenreich (LMU),
Sabine
Jansen (LMU),
Franz Merkl
(LMU),
Silke
Rolles (TUM)
Upcoming talks:
| Mon 24 Nov 2025, 16:30: Marco Seiler Contact process with viral load |
| In this talk, we present two novel variants of the contact process. In the first variant individuals carry a viral load. An individual with viral load zero is classified as healthy and otherwise infected. If an individual becomes infected it begins with a viral load of one, which then evolves according to a Birth-Death process. In this model, viral load indicates severity of the infection such that individuals with a higher load can be more infectious. Moreover, the recovery times of individual is not necessarily exponentially distributed and can even be chosen to follow a power-law distribution. In the second variant individuals are permanently infected albeit in two states: actively infected or dormant. The dynamics of these individual states are again governed by a Birth-Death process. Dormant infections do not interact with neighbouring individuals but may reactivate spontaneously. Active infections reactivate dormant neighbours at a constant rate and may become dormant themselves. We present a Poisson construction for both variants. For the first model, we study the phase transition of survival and discuss existence of a non-trivial upper invariant law. Additionally, we derive a duality relationship between the two variant, which we use to uncover a phase transition regarding invariant distributions in the second variant. |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. Room BC1 2.01.10 (8101.02.110) |
| Mon 1 Dec 2025, 16:30: Zsofia Talyigas TBA |
| TBA |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. Room BC1 2.01.10 (8101.02.110) |
| Mon 22 Dec 2025, 16:30: Chiara Sabina Bariletto TBA |
| TBA |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. Room BC1 2.01.10 (8101.02.110) |
| Mon 26 Jan 2026, 16:30: Robin Kaiser TBA |
| TBA |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. |